NL playoffs 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

The earlier installment of this article targeted on my predictions for the American League playoffs six months therefore. The Toronto Blue Jays squeaked by my simulations to qualify for the World Sequence.

And the Nationwide League’s consultant in my fictional postseason? Nicely, that’s as we speak’s matter.

I’m as soon as once more following up on my regular-season forecasts, which I rolled out over the previous few weeks. You’ll be able to revisit the divisional breakdowns — and study extra about my prediction system — by these hyperlinks:

I’ll run 1,000 simulations under for every Nationwide League playoff collection, primarily based on the whole variety of prediction factors that my pc assigned to every membership. The crew that wins nearly all of my simulations will advance to the subsequent spherical.

Byes are given to the 2 top-seeded groups in every league, who await the 2 wild-card winners. Then come a pair of division collection, the league’s championship collection, and, in fact, the World Sequence. You’ll be able to see the expected outcomes under, excepting the last word matchup between Toronto and the NL champ. That comes subsequent Tuesday.

A brand new installment will arrive in your electronic mail upon posting

  • Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers (3 seed, first place in NL Central, 98 prediction factors) vs. San Diego Padres (6 seed, second place in NL West, 78 prediction factors)

  • Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Brewers 545, Padres 455

  • Backside line: If seeds have been primarily based solely on regular-season data, the Brewers would discover themselves within the 4 gap. However they’re elevated to the three seed due to their title within the weak NL Central. Milwaukee rolls on with a comparatively straightforward win over the unimpressive Padres.

  • Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (4 seed, second place in NL East, 122 prediction factors) vs. Chicago Cubs (5 seed, second place in NL Central, 85 prediction factors)

  • Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Phillies 596, Cubs 404

  • Backside line: Philadelphia’s rating would put it miles forward of any membership within the Central Division, however it’s the Phillies’ misfortune to be caught behind Atlanta within the East. They’ll take out their frustration on the Cubs in probably the most lopsided playoff collection in both league.

  • Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed, first place in NL West, 143 prediction factors) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4 seed, second place in NL East, 122 prediction factors)

  • Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Dodgers 544, Phillies 456

  • Backside line: The playoff system is supposedly structured to present the 1 seed the simplest highway to a championship. That’s not true on this case, because the favored Dodgers run into the damaging Phillies. The pc provides Los Angeles the sting on this high-powered matchup.

  • Matchup: Atlanta Braves (2 seed, first place in NL East, 126 prediction factors) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (3 seed, first place in NL Central, 98 prediction factors)

  • Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Braves 562, Brewers 438

  • Backside line: The Braves are allowed to fatten up in opposition to the overmatched Brewers within the different Division Sequence. The simulations are a bit nearer than you may anticipate, although Atlanta nonetheless advances simply to the NLCS.

  • Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (1 seed, first place in NL West, 143 prediction factors) vs. Atlanta Braves (2 seed, first place in NL East, 126 prediction factors)

  • Wins in 1,000 simulated collection: Dodgers 518, Braves 482

  • Backside line: That is the heavyweight battle that everyone expects — and desires — to see in October. It’s laborious to think about the Dodgers’ loaded roster popping out on the quick finish, but the pc begs to vary. It envisions a good collection from starting to finish, with Los Angeles barely getting by.