NL West 2023 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

Why hassle poring by way of reams of statistics earlier than predicting the winner of the Nationwide League’s Western Division? Why not simply choose the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Why not, certainly?

The Dodgers have completed first within the NL West 9 instances prior to now 10 seasons. Their solely failure hardly deserves to be labeled as such. Los Angeles gained the spectacular complete of 106 video games in 2021, although the San Francisco Giants went one higher with 107 victories.

So, sure, I’m prepared to acknowledge this historic crucial by putting in the Dodgers because the divisional favourite once more in 2023.

However there’s extra behind my verdict than a easy adherence to precedent. My predictions are based mostly on comparisons of the NL West’s present golf equipment with the three-year data of 1,258 groups from the span between 1976 and 2020, higher generally known as the period of free company. (Click on right here to study extra about my prediction system.)

The projected standings are decided by the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every divisional squad, the 50 groups from the previous that almost all carefully resembled every present-day squad.

Thirty-four of the Dodgers’ 50 CMs made it to the playoffs of their subsequent seasons, simply the perfect document for anyone within the NL West. The runners-up are San Francisco (16 qualifiers) and the San Diego Padres (12), adopted by the Arizona Diamondbacks with eight playoff contestants and the Colorado Rockies with solely three CMs qualifying for postseason play.

That leaves us with these projected standings for the Nationwide League West in 2023:

  • 1. Dodgers

  • 2. Giants

  • 3. Padres

  • 4. Diamondbacks

  • 5. Rockies

However wait a minute, you say. The Padres have spent a lot cash in latest months that they appear to have elevated themselves to elite standing. Simply contemplate a few of their acquisitions since final August: outfielder Juan Soto, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, designated hitter Nelson Cruz, and pitchers Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha.

A number of specialists have picked the Padres to win the divisional crown this yr, which might be their first NL West crown since 2006. It’s a logical alternative, although my system is sticking stubbornly with the Dodgers. We’ll see who’s proper in October.

Scroll under to see breakdowns for all 5 NL West golf equipment. The primary entry for every workforce is its 2022 document, together with postseason abbreviations of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title. Subsequent are the subsequent-season outcomes for the 50 closest matches for a given franchise (based mostly on my 2020-2022 evaluation), adopted by a listing of the highest 5 CMs and their next-year data.

Extra particulars may be discovered within the newly revealed Baseball’s Best (and Worst) 2023 Yearbook.

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  • 2022 document: 111-51 (.685, P)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 15 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 34 of fifty

  • CM #1: Braves (1997-1999); 2000 document: 95-67 (.586, P)

  • CM #2: Dodgers (2017-2019); 2020 document: 43-17 (.717, WLP)

  • CM #3: Braves (1996-1998); 1999 document: 103-59 (.636, LP)

  • CM #4: Mets (1986-1988); 1989 document: 87-75 (.537)

  • CM #5: Braves (1995-1997); 1998 document: 106-56 (.654, P)

  • 2022 document: 81-81 (.500)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 16 of fifty

  • CM #1: Marlins (2002-2004); 2005 document: 83-79 (.512)

  • CM #2: Giants (2009-2011); 2012 document: 94-68 (.580, WLP)

  • CM #3: Giants (1988-1990); 1991 document: 75-87 (.463)

  • CM #4: Royals (1979-1981); 1982 document: 90-72 (.556)

  • CM #5: Phillies (1979-1981); 1982 document: 89-73 (.549)

  • 2022 document: 89-73 (.549, P)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 12 of fifty

  • CM #1: Dodgers (2009-2011); 2012 document: 86-76 (.531)

  • CM #2: Orioles (2014-2016); 2017 document: 75-87 (.463)

  • CM #3: White Sox (2000-2002); 2003 document: 86-76 (.531)

  • CM #4: Dodgers (1988-1990); 1991 document: 93-69 (.574)

  • CM #5: Diamondbacks (2017-2019); 2020 document: 25-35 (.417)

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  • 2022 document: 74-88 (.457)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

  • CM #1: Expos (1975-1977); 1978 document: 76-86 (.469)

  • CM #2: Marlins (2012-2014); 2015 document: 71-91 (.438)

  • CM #3: Twins (1994-1996); 1997 document: 68-94 (.420)

  • CM #4: Blue Jays (1980-1982); 1983 document: 89-73 (.549)

  • CM #5: Astros (1990-1992); 1993 document: 85-77 (.525)

  • 2022 document: 68-94 (.420)

  • Closest matches (CM): 50

  • Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

  • Gained league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

  • Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 3 of fifty

  • CM #1: Rockies (2012-2014); 2015 document: 68-94 (.420)

  • CM #2: Twins (1995-1997); 1998 document: 70-92 (.432)

  • CM #3: White Sox (1978-1980); 1981 document: 54-52 (.509)

  • CM #4: Rockies (2002-2004); 2005 document: 67-95 (.414)

  • CM #5: White Sox (1986-1988); 1989 document: 69-92 (.429)

An entire rundown of 2022 stats — and a glance forward on the season to return

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