Rudy’s 2023 ToutWars 15 Crew Blended Snake Draft (5×5 OBP)

The ToutWars Blended Draft befell on Tuesday, March seventh. It’s a customary 15 workforce snake draft with weekly FAAB ($1000) besides that it’s 5×5 OBP vs customary 5×5. Different key exceptions vs customary weekly leagues embody:

  1. You have to begin all FAAB purchases through the first week
  2. You possibly can decide up minor leaguers along with your FAAB (however you’ll be taking zeroes for a full week)
  3. Limitless IL and you’ll exchange a man after lineups lock in the event that they go on IL or return from IL (in case you add a man again into your lineup, it’s important to drop the man being changed)
  4. There are two Ohtanis out there on draft day – the hitter and the pitcher.

That is the one non-standard 5×5 roto format I play. It’s much less that I’m a purist and extra that the one roto leagues I play are typically analyst leagues (like this) or NFBC. In actuality, I believe alternate codecs play to my energy as ADP turns into much less of a information (and presumably a hindrance/bias) and my Preseason Participant Rater values (nonetheless free) play a stronger function.

Fast Perspective On The Distinction Between OBP vs AVG
The most important shift in OBP leagues is the usual 5×5 ADP turns into a much less dependable gauge for predicting draft selections. This makes the draft room extra unpredictable and benefits extra ready drafters. I have a look at 5×5 hitter ADP however am extra keen in different drafts to leap guys 1+ rounds.

There are different minor shifts (1Bs look higher b/c they usually have highest BB charges, hitters with excessive AVGs however mediocre BB charges develop into much less priceless, and so forth.) however this finally ends up baked into the projections. I’ve to run 15-team 5×5 OBP customized however you may entry my 12-team 5×5 OBP projections and people are up to date each day for Season to Date and Remainder of Season as effectively. All free.

Final Yr Recap (right here’s my post-draft writeup)

I rebounded from an ill-fated 2021 (tenth place after my prime hitters missed many of the 12 months) to complete 2nd for the third time (and prime 2 for the fifth time) in 8 years.

It was an odd draft trying again on it now. Whereas the Freeman/Bichette begin from the eleventh spot end up fairly effectively, my aggressive third spherical number of pre-trade Jesse Winker paired with then teammate Jonathan India within the 4th backfired spectacularly. Regardless of these disasters, my offense crushed as did my low cost RP construct (Taylor Rogers in 14th, Tanner Rainey in twenty third, Jorge Lopez in FAAB).

So it got here all the way down to Wins/ERA/WHIP the place I had 29 much less standings factors than Mike Gianella explaining roughly 225% of our distinction.

Whereas there was definitely some unhealthy luck on Wins, I misplaced as a result of my beginning pitching wasn’t adequate (see ERA/WHIP) and Mike crushed it with a strong ace/ace begin (Burnes, Scherzer) and an awesome worth in Darvish as an SP3 within the eighth. There wasn’t one participant that befelled my ratios – it’s simply none of my pitchers have been significantly good on ratios except for Dylan Stop (my different co-ace was Gausman who had a so-so 3.35/1.24). Even my key FAAB acquisitions (Jose Suarez, Nick Lodolo) have been all effective. Hitting on a prime SP as an alternative of Winker or India definitely would’ve helped. I additionally remorse not taking an opportunity on then-FA Carlos Rodon who was prime of my SP board after I took Eovalid and Kopech within the ninth/tenth spherical.

Congratulations to Mike Gianella for profitable the league in his first 12 months.

2023 Draft

Listed here are the complete outcomes of the 2023 Tout Wars Mixed League Draft.

Draft Technique Overview

  • I had 2nd decide on KDS and selected 4th. I’m unsure that was the wisest determination however I just like the management of choosing earlier than turns (and normally the highest picks are the individuals who did higher the 12 months earlier than).
  • Selecting 4th, I used to be trying to begin with two hitters and an SP. If Choose/Soto/Acuna falls, I’ll take them. In any other case, Kyle Tucker. Finest bat who falls within the 2nd could be my default however open to going SP/bat relying on the room.
  • Prioritize bats just a little greater than LABR – sacrifice an RP1 within the first 10 rounds over SP high quality/amount.
  • Goal for steadiness in hitting classes however prioritize HR/OBP over SB.

Early Spherical Notes

  • The primary three picks went sadly as anticipated and most well-liked Tucker’s OF + velocity over Vlad’s mildly extra priceless stat line.
  • The room went heavy bat within the first two rounds (solely 3 pitchers) so I appreciated the SP depth greater than hitter depth. Took Olson right here banking he had much less an opportunity coming again to me than my SP desire in Strider. Unsure I used to be proper on the Olson take however Strider did fall.
  • For picks 4-7, I wished a minimum of one SP however, in any other case, was simply going to roll with no matter values fell to me. I’d’ve gone Helsley over Gimenez within the sixth if he was on the board. Darvish/Springer/Gimenez/Kirk have been all good values.
  • Jake McCarthy making it to eight.11 allowed me to principally deprioritize velocity the remainder of the draft and Lance Lynn (SP3 in ninth) and Rowdy Tellez (CI in tenth) present good padding in each method.

Random Observations

  • This draft is at all times so unpredictable vs ADP that I play extra ‘worth’ rooster on Saves and 2B/SS/3B/C2. I admittedly bought burnt on the ten/11 flip the place I used to be ambivalent to David Bednar or Alexis Diaz and figured I’d take the one which workforce #1 (Mike Gianella) didn’t take and seize Tellez at 10.11. Mike took Bednar at 11.1 however Crew #2 (Trachtman) stunned me taking Diaz 11.2 as his RP2. Sewald within the thirteenth and Leclerc within the sixteenth are effective values based mostly on my projections however ideally I get Diaz within the eleventh and wait till the 18th or so earlier than an RP2.
  • I used to be effective with a number of 3B values later in draft with Yandy Diaz (nice OBP), Rendon, Moncada, and Donaldson. I misplaced the sport of rooster on the primary three and ended up taking Donaldson within the twenty fifth. Oswald Peraza within the nineteenth, Luis Garcia (2B/SS) within the twenty third, and Royce Lewis as an IL stash with my final (twenty ninth decide) provides me an okay opening day MI + 3B (Gimenez and Urias at 2B/SS) with some attainable upside as we speak (Peraza) and later in season (Lewis).
  • My Hit/SP/RP break up was 63/30/6 whereas the room was 63/27/9. That’s in keeping with plan.
  • Not thrilled solely drafting 3 RPs (Sewald, Leclerc, Trevor Could). There have been one or two circumstances within the again 1/3 the place I bought sniped.
  • I like my SP high quality/amount. I believe Strider/Darvish are a powerful SP1/SP2 and double-dipped at SP3 with Lynn and Morton. In different 2023 drafts, I’ve prioritized SP high quality just a little extra and double-dipped on SP1 or SP2. Sandoval and Manaea spherical out a powerful prime 6 and Matz, Waldichuk, and Megill within the ‘free’ rounds present two depth/matchup guys and a pleasant upside play in Megill if he makes the Mets beginning rotation.
  • Some optimistic notes on my opponents:
    • I had Mike Gianella’s draft 2nd to mine coming into final 12 months and he received. This 12 months’s he’s third so guess meaning he’ll be runner-up. (I put little inventory in preseason standings / workforce values however I had the highest 4 precise finishers in my prime 5 for draft worth and my backside 3 in draft worth all completed within the backside 5. Extra sign than I’d’ve anticipated.)
    • Most improved draft award goes to Tim McCullough who I’ve as 2nd in $ this 12 months after being a lot decrease in 2022. Or perhaps he discovered our Participant Rater and it goosed him up in my calculations.
    • Stable rookie draft on this league by BHQ’s Ryan Bloomfield who additionally did a live stream of the draft with fellow drafter Ray Murphy and co-host Bubba.
    • Very good steadiness for Shelly Verougstraete’s workforce throughout all however SV and which will resolve by opening day with Fairbanks/Munoz/Montero in tow (though as somebody who drafted Sewald, hoping it’s at finest a Meatloaf scenario)
    • Adam Ronis
  • Here’s a view of the workforce via my draft room with a few customizations. There’s just a little bit to unpack. So the belief within the draft room is that the ‘common’ drafted workforce ought to be price $260 and this may be considered by class $ at a roughly 63.5/36.5 break up ($150 for hitting, $85 for pitching, $1 of substitute worth per participant). Additionally, this view solely appears to be like at gamers with optimistic $ worth. Why? As a result of it’s extra seemingly destructive $ gamers get changed with higher gamers and this removes noise from gamers who’re within the ‘pink’ b/c of damage or prospect stashes.
    • Commentary #1: My workforce appears to be like usually sturdy throughout most classes with SV/ERA nearer to league common. I just like the steadiness within the hitting. I skew in direction of excessive $Okay pitchers as a result of that’s essentially the most bankable stat for projecting so it’s not stunning that’s my strongest stat.
      • Observe: An attention-grabbing phenomenon I found is skewing Okay means you usually are going to look higher on WHIP than ERA. Why? Primarily as a result of Okay’s correlate with FBs (HR’s and XBH) which drives Runs. I focused Sandoval (and thought of Cobb) in the course of the draft for his means to handle contact and steadiness these stats just a little bit.
    • Commentary #2: Each the “Different Crew Avg” and the projected values utilizing the highest 23 rounds price of NFBC ADP come actually near matching the targets. IMO that’s each a strong proof level for the underlying projections and the participant rater $ method that, in combination, it’s matching ADP / consensus conduct. It’s a lot simpler/cleaner than monitoring steadiness via some derived targets based mostly on final 12 months’s knowledge.